STORYBOOK OÜ: Financial Report of 2019 – Prognosis for Each Company. Really? No Way?!
Storybook’s report FINANCES will be a break-through in assessing criteria for economic capacity of companies. What we need on a daily basis is information not only about yesterday and today – but about tomorrow as well: our aim is to comprehend and predict the future.
For the first time, companies can have a look today at companies’ annual report for 2019 (prognosis). The prognosis is backed up by the scientific model of Credit Risk Score with its 99.5% accuracy – when the risks go up, the indicators go down and vice versa.
How did we get to this prognosis?
In modelling this prediction of data, we used past data about companies’ quarterly turnovers (source: EMTA) and the financial indicators from annual reports of previous years (source: Commercial Register), then converted annual indicators into quarterly ones and weighted them. We also included seasonal changes and trends in fields of activities (EMTAK: 5 levels) into our model. To get a more accurate prognosis of turnover we assessed each field of activity separately based on Credit Score (5 levels – 99.5% accuracy) as well. We took these results into account when calculating the Credit Scores for companies operating in the corresponding fields of activity. For companies that have not published their quarterly turnovers but data on taxes paid (including the number of employees) is available, we modelled prognosis of turnover based on annual reports of previous years, adding to this labour taxes and number of employees – we then obtained quarterly weights of temporal series for a financial turnover prognosis for the years 2018 and 2019.
Using machine learning methods, we identified the trends and average (optimal) weights in balance sheet and income statement rows for annual report weighted indicators; and in accordance with turnover prognosis we modelled the remaining financial indicators for the financial year with optimal weights.
So we are making prognoses based on indicators from previous periods – but we cannot yet predict or ‘read’ the plans, ideas and goals inside the entrepreneurs’ minds.
The deadline for the completion of the development of FINANCES is set at 31 May, 2019.
Every report on Storybook will contain a related article.The main Story of the report FINANCES will be the financial analysis of the field of activity of the company